Is the recession a hoax?

[hughs]

I'm new to the community here but have been looking with interest at the threads that have been posted over the past few weeks so I thought I would join in so I could post. I've been watching the news of the credit crunch with growing trepidation - it all just seems too unreal. I have been thinking for a while that we're being taken for a ride and then I read about this guys called Robert Higgs who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions I can't give you the link to the story but if you google Robert Higgs, you can look at the claims yourselves.

Then I read about this other guy based in Brussels - Dr Reinout Bracke - whose research on the global financial crisis basically tallies with Higgs' - they can find nothing in the statistics that prove that the recession is nothing but a hoax. There's a story on Indymedia about it.
What do you guys all think of it?

[Tim the Mage]

I'm new to the community here but have been looking with interest at the threads that have been posted over the past few weeks so I thought I would join in so I could post. I've been watching the news of the credit crunch with growing trepidation - it all just seems too unreal. I have been thinking for a while that we're being taken for a ride and then I read about this guys called Robert Higgs who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions I can't give you the link to the story but if you google Robert Higgs, you can look at the claims yourselves.

Then I read about this other guy based in Brussels - Dr Reinout Bracke - whose research on the global financial crisis basically tallies with Higgs' - they can find nothing in the statistics that prove that the recession is nothing but a hoax. There's a story on Indymedia about it.
What do you guys all think of it?

It's bollocks...I don't even need to look up the article to tell you that. There is some evidence that the so-called "credit crunch" was rather over-played - it's only high profile property markets and unsecured lending that's been hit. Structured business lending hasn't really stopped. That is the point Robert Higgs is making (http://mises.org/story/3288)

But this is a real recession...people really are losing their jobs, people really are going out of business and the asset price bubble has burst.

If you're asking whether Government is to blame - well yes it is. If you're suggesting Governments created the thing deliberately, I find that pretty hard to believe - most elected officials are stupid but not that stupid.

[Matt]

I have been thinking for a while that we're being taken for a ride and then I read about this guys called Robert Higgs who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions I can't give you the link to the story but if you google Robert Higgs, you can look at the claims yourselves.

Really? Is that the same Robert Higgs who 6 months ago was saying that collapse was inevitable?

http://www.independent.org/blog/?p=186

[Mulder]

... who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions ...

Just about every major disaster that happens seems to have been planned by those who wish to destabilize the world and so take control themselves. And yet, here we are after all these disasters and no one new has taken over yet (more's the pity). How many disasters do we have to endure before these people finally come out and start ruling?

I, for one, am completely fed up with it. They should either just get on and take over or stop causing mayhem all the time and blaming it on other people. What a way to secretly run the world!

[Legaleagle]

As a businessman who has seen his turnover halved in the last 18 months, having been brought to the cusp of bankruptcy just to keep trading, and personally having to sit down 24 of my hardworking and blameless employees to explain to them that I can't afford to pay them anymore and that they are redundant, I find the notion that the recession is a hoax quite offensive.

[bindeweede]

As a businessman who has seen his turnover halved in the last 18 months, having been brought to the cusp of bankruptcy just to keep trading, and personally having to sit down 24 of my hardworking and blameless employees to explain to them that I can't afford to pay them anymore and that they are redundant, I find the notion that the recession is a hoax quite offensive.

Sad to read that post - and sad for those who no longer have a job. Do you mind if I ask where, in your opinion, the blame lies? Some here just blame HMG, but I really wonder if it is just as simple as that.

[Tim the Mage]

Sad to read that post - and sad for those who no longer have a job. Do you mind if I ask where, in your opinion, the blame lies? Some here just blame HMG, but I really wonder if it is just as simple as that.

Bindeweede (jus' love the tag) - would that life were so simple. Bubbles are unnatural (I think there's some real science there or is it unstable) and they go pop! With the joys of glorious hindsight we can pin down some... No we can't - there are still academic rows going on about the tulip bubble in Holland.


...all I can say is look for the fraud.

[Croydon Bob]

there are still academic rows going on about the tulip bubble in Holland.

The prevalent theory today is that it is an urban legend and didn't actually happen. At least, it wasn't a 'bubble', it was just a price fluctuation caused in part by the lull in the Thirty Year War.

[Legaleagle]

Sad to read that post - and sad for those who no longer have a job. Do you mind if I ask where, in your opinion, the blame lies? Some here just blame HMG, but I really wonder if it is just as simple as that.

My own problems have been caused by lack of activity in the housing market. My Law practice is heavily reliant on conveyancing work. Work all but dried up sometime around October 2007 and only started picking up again January 2009.

I think it was the sub-prime scandal which exposed the housing bubble for what it was. When the mortgage companies realised they were exposed to huge losses they withdrew mortgage funding from the market completely, and you can imagine, without mortgages there ain't gonna be a lot of people moving house. This caused a freefall price crash.

However, with house prices being quite a bargain now, especially to those with cash to spend, things are picking up quite a bit, so I am optimistic. But it will take me years to recover from this in a personal sense.

I don't really blame the government as such, although they could have stepped in and damped down the market earlier if they had wanted to. I still don't think we have learned the lesson in this Country by the way, that House price inflation is a bad thing. In what other sector of the economy is price inflation in yearly double digits considered a good thing?

[FarSideOfTheMoon]

On a Body-building forum I also post on, there are basically people from all walks of life and doing all sorts of jobs.

There have been a number of threads about the impact to people's jobs. Many are being laid off, work is extremely short, and pay cuts and freezes are common.

It does seem that manual/skilled professions linked to building are certainly worst hit. Personally, I'm not getting a pay rise this year for first time ever. Although depending on news in the next 2-3 weeks as life insurers report results, I'll be happy if industry is still a viable proposition come end of March.

[reptilians]

Sad to read that post - and sad for those who no longer have a job. Do you mind if I ask where, in your opinion, the blame lies? Some here just blame HMG, but I really wonder if it is just as simple as that.

As with most things everyone is to blame a little. It's not any one person, organization, company or Governments fault.

[Croydon Bob]

As with most things everyone is to blame a little. It's not any one person, organization, company or Governments fault.

Well, you would say that. I read on the Icke forums that it was all the fault of reptilians.

[WeTheSheeple]

Just about every major disaster that happens seems to have been planned by those who wish to destabilize the world and so take control themselves. And yet, here we are after all these disasters and no one new has taken over yet (more's the pity). How many disasters do we have to endure before these people finally come out and start ruling?

I, for one, am completely fed up with it. They should either just get on and take over or stop causing mayhem all the time and blaming it on other people. What a way to secretly run the world!

My sentiments exactly! Hey, Mulder, have you read Jon Ronson's 'Them: Adventures With Extremists?' Hilarious!

[Craig]

The recession is very real. Since I started getting money when I was 16, I was always good about not overspending, I never borrow or run up debt and since age 18 I have saved a lot in the banks.

Now, I save no more, theres no reason too, the lack of interest has killed the incentive. However, I stockpile cash, so far the pile is very big. I've been good with money and have become a victim to some greedy assholes.

[skbuncks]

The recession is very real. Since I started getting money when I was 16, I was always good about not overspending, I never borrow or run up debt and since age 18 I have saved a lot in the banks.

Now, I save no more, theres no reason too, the lack of interest has killed the incentive. However, I stockpile cash, so far the pile is very big. I've been good with money and have become a victim to some greedy assholes.

I, for one, welcome my new sponsor

skb