Is the recession a hoax?

[hughs]

I'm new to the community here but have been looking with interest at the threads that have been posted over the past few weeks so I thought I would join in so I could post. I've been watching the news of the credit crunch with growing trepidation - it all just seems too unreal. I have been thinking for a while that we're being taken for a ride and then I read about this guys called Robert Higgs who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions I can't give you the link to the story but if you google Robert Higgs, you can look at the claims yourselves.

Then I read about this other guy based in Brussels - Dr Reinout Bracke - whose research on the global financial crisis basically tallies with Higgs' - they can find nothing in the statistics that prove that the recession is nothing but a hoax. There's a story on Indymedia about it.
What do you guys all think of it?

[Tim the Mage]

I'm new to the community here but have been looking with interest at the threads that have been posted over the past few weeks so I thought I would join in so I could post. I've been watching the news of the credit crunch with growing trepidation - it all just seems too unreal. I have been thinking for a while that we're being taken for a ride and then I read about this guys called Robert Higgs who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions I can't give you the link to the story but if you google Robert Higgs, you can look at the claims yourselves.

Then I read about this other guy based in Brussels - Dr Reinout Bracke - whose research on the global financial crisis basically tallies with Higgs' - they can find nothing in the statistics that prove that the recession is nothing but a hoax. There's a story on Indymedia about it.
What do you guys all think of it?

It's bollocks...I don't even need to look up the article to tell you that. There is some evidence that the so-called "credit crunch" was rather over-played - it's only high profile property markets and unsecured lending that's been hit. Structured business lending hasn't really stopped. That is the point Robert Higgs is making (http://mises.org/story/3288)

But this is a real recession...people really are losing their jobs, people really are going out of business and the asset price bubble has burst.

If you're asking whether Government is to blame - well yes it is. If you're suggesting Governments created the thing deliberately, I find that pretty hard to believe - most elected officials are stupid but not that stupid.

[Matt]

I have been thinking for a while that we're being taken for a ride and then I read about this guys called Robert Higgs who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions I can't give you the link to the story but if you google Robert Higgs, you can look at the claims yourselves.

Really? Is that the same Robert Higgs who 6 months ago was saying that collapse was inevitable?

http://www.independent.org/blog/?p=186

[Mulder]

... who basically comes out and says that those in power are claiming a credit crisis to unbalance our financial institutions ...

Just about every major disaster that happens seems to have been planned by those who wish to destabilize the world and so take control themselves. And yet, here we are after all these disasters and no one new has taken over yet (more's the pity). How many disasters do we have to endure before these people finally come out and start ruling?

I, for one, am completely fed up with it. They should either just get on and take over or stop causing mayhem all the time and blaming it on other people. What a way to secretly run the world!

[Legaleagle]

As a businessman who has seen his turnover halved in the last 18 months, having been brought to the cusp of bankruptcy just to keep trading, and personally having to sit down 24 of my hardworking and blameless employees to explain to them that I can't afford to pay them anymore and that they are redundant, I find the notion that the recession is a hoax quite offensive.

[bindeweede]

As a businessman who has seen his turnover halved in the last 18 months, having been brought to the cusp of bankruptcy just to keep trading, and personally having to sit down 24 of my hardworking and blameless employees to explain to them that I can't afford to pay them anymore and that they are redundant, I find the notion that the recession is a hoax quite offensive.

Sad to read that post - and sad for those who no longer have a job. Do you mind if I ask where, in your opinion, the blame lies? Some here just blame HMG, but I really wonder if it is just as simple as that.

[Tim the Mage]

Sad to read that post - and sad for those who no longer have a job. Do you mind if I ask where, in your opinion, the blame lies? Some here just blame HMG, but I really wonder if it is just as simple as that.

Bindeweede (jus' love the tag) - would that life were so simple. Bubbles are unnatural (I think there's some real science there or is it unstable) and they go pop! With the joys of glorious hindsight we can pin down some... No we can't - there are still academic rows going on about the tulip bubble in Holland.


...all I can say is look for the fraud.

[Legaleagle]

Sad to read that post - and sad for those who no longer have a job. Do you mind if I ask where, in your opinion, the blame lies? Some here just blame HMG, but I really wonder if it is just as simple as that.

My own problems have been caused by lack of activity in the housing market. My Law practice is heavily reliant on conveyancing work. Work all but dried up sometime around October 2007 and only started picking up again January 2009.

I think it was the sub-prime scandal which exposed the housing bubble for what it was. When the mortgage companies realised they were exposed to huge losses they withdrew mortgage funding from the market completely, and you can imagine, without mortgages there ain't gonna be a lot of people moving house. This caused a freefall price crash.

However, with house prices being quite a bargain now, especially to those with cash to spend, things are picking up quite a bit, so I am optimistic. But it will take me years to recover from this in a personal sense.

I don't really blame the government as such, although they could have stepped in and damped down the market earlier if they had wanted to. I still don't think we have learned the lesson in this Country by the way, that House price inflation is a bad thing. In what other sector of the economy is price inflation in yearly double digits considered a good thing?

[FarSideOfTheMoon]

On a Body-building forum I also post on, there are basically people from all walks of life and doing all sorts of jobs.

There have been a number of threads about the impact to people's jobs. Many are being laid off, work is extremely short, and pay cuts and freezes are common.

It does seem that manual/skilled professions linked to building are certainly worst hit. Personally, I'm not getting a pay rise this year for first time ever. Although depending on news in the next 2-3 weeks as life insurers report results, I'll be happy if industry is still a viable proposition come end of March.

[Croydon Bob]

there are still academic rows going on about the tulip bubble in Holland.

The prevalent theory today is that it is an urban legend and didn't actually happen. At least, it wasn't a 'bubble', it was just a price fluctuation caused in part by the lull in the Thirty Year War.

[Mulder]

Bubbles are an extreme form of fashion. When everyone else is doing something, apparently profitably, it is difficult to resist the peer pressure. Anyone in a bank in the last few years who pointed out the folly of securitising bad loans would have seen their career stall at best.

Bubbles are like a sort of collective madness. I remember vividly the dotcom bubble. The idea was simple - the internet gave you instant access to billions of potential customers. And setting up a commercial website cost peanuts. It looked like a no-brainer.

I'm sure everyone here realises that it is a lot harder than that to make money from the web (look at Amazon). But when a simple idea captures the imagination, it takes a strong dose of reality (like the credit crunch) to destroy it.

[lookaroundyou]

Dr Reinout Bracke - whose research on the global financial crisis basically tallies with Higgs' - they can find nothing in the statistics that prove that the recession is nothing but a hoax

Hughs - welcome to the community, I too am a relative newbie and am really glad to find somewhere where all opinions are heard. Anyway, I personally believe that the recession is a hoax, there are real victims here, but I believe the problem has been faked by greater forces.

I'd also like to thank you for bringing up Dr. Bracke, who is a great leader in his field but is hardly ever mentioned in newspaper articles (I wonder why..) about restoring our economic system. There is an article about him I found on a site at hardy25truth.blogspot.com it's really informative and interesting. I'm trying to get a copy of his monograph but it's a bit of an internet mission!

[Croydon Bob]

It seems to me that it is Dr Reinout Bracke who is the hoax, not the recession. He doesn't appear to work for, or have any connection to, The Center for European Renewal as claimed. And I note that both 'hughs' and 'lookaroundyou' have a similar, slightly awkward, style of writing. 'Both' from the Netherlands?

[Croydon Bob]

Perhaps 'hughs' and/or 'lookaroundyou' would like to comment on my suggestion that they are the same person and that Dr Reinout Bracke either doesn't exist at all or is, again, the same one person? Could John J confirm my prediction that they have the same IP? Thus proving that I have psychic powers (or is it psychotic powers?).

[WeTheSheeple]

Just about every major disaster that happens seems to have been planned by those who wish to destabilize the world and so take control themselves. And yet, here we are after all these disasters and no one new has taken over yet (more's the pity). How many disasters do we have to endure before these people finally come out and start ruling?

I, for one, am completely fed up with it. They should either just get on and take over or stop causing mayhem all the time and blaming it on other people. What a way to secretly run the world!

My sentiments exactly! Hey, Mulder, have you read Jon Ronson's 'Them: Adventures With Extremists?' Hilarious!