For something as complex as this one should use Hill’s Criteria:
1. Strength of Association.
a. Every Christmas in every household SC delivers, sometimes big, sometimes meagre – but he delivers.
2. Consistency of Association.
a. The relationship is just as strong in Scandanavia, Germany, America as in the UK.
3. Specificity of Association.
a. 25th December + Christmas tree + presents = SC, one can get presents at other times like birthdays but the three ingredients identified only occur together.
a. For three months before Christmas, the shops, CBBC and other major media sources are predicting that SC will arrive on the 25th Dec – sure enough every year he delivers.
5. Biological Gradient.
a. What we know of SC is that he ‘sees’ if you are good or bad – children are good so he always comes to them – many ‘bad’ adults lose out.
b. The more you ask for in the letter you send to the North Pole the more you get on Christmas day (Not clear what happens to the big ticket items!)
a. St. Nichlas is a well known historical character, Nicholas of Myra. He was well known for secretly giving gifts to children. He was a saint. All this is historical fact. God rewarded him by letting him do this once a year for all the children of the world. All perfectly reasonable.
a. Everything we know about SC makes perfect sense. He could not manage without the Elves there is too much to do, and without flying reindeers he could not get all over the world so quickly. The ability to make pretend chimney’s shows he moves with the times.
8. Experimental evidence
a. Experiments are for adults – they mess with SC and the presents dry up.
a. Everyone knows god exists and that he watches everything we do and rewards good behaviour. SC does just the same one day a year (god has a birthday party to attend that day). So since even adults know that god can do all these things, it is clear that SC can easily manage Christmas.