Orson Welles on Cold Reading

[brianp]

He touches on a phenomenon I've not come across before whereby 'psychics' come to believe their powers are real. He seems to suggest that this always happens - I wonder if that's true.

http://www.amateurscientist.org/2009...n-it-down.html

[newatheist]

He touches on a phenomenon I've not come across before whereby 'psychics' come to believe their powers are real. He seems to suggest that this always happens - I wonder if that's true.

http://www.amateurscientist.org/2009...n-it-down.html

I can understand it happening very often but always? Unlikely. At least I don't see any evidence to suggest what he says is true.

[Graham Lappin]

I would always avoid saying always.

It is a very interesting point however. It seems to follow the old adage that there are four stages of learning: unconsciously incompetent, consciously incompetent, consciously competent and unconsciously competent.

It was Richard Feynman, who when asked how he came up with his theories on quantum electrodynamics said, "I guessed". He went on to point out that one guess was right and the other thousands of guesses were wrong, but it illustrates the point that with experience we can become more intuitive about what we do. Intuition is perhaps our rational unconscious mind speaking to us (can't remember who said that). I can see how those working in the flim-flam industries who had become unconsciously competent may start to confuse intuition with supernatural power.

Then again there are the down-right cheating charlatans and it can sometimes be difficult to distinguish these from those that genuinely believe.

[Harryprice]

He touches on a phenomenon I've not come across before whereby 'psychics' come to believe their powers are real. He seems to suggest that this always happens - I wonder if that's true.

I think most psychics fully believe they are psychic. That is certainly my experience (which is mostly with amateur psychics). What is interesting is how they rationalise away problems when their 'powers' let them down. They have a way of 'self-editing' the evidence which is fascinating.

[Graham Lappin]

I think most psychics fully believe they are psychic....

I admit I do not know many (actually any) people who claim they are psychic although the US is certainly full of them. I suspect however you are right in that the majority merely have the delusion they have such powers.

I guess therefore that honest dilution is better than dishonest charlotism?

[tolman]

It must make it much easier for someone to believe they are psychic if they come into contact with people (customers?) who desperately want to believe, and who tell the 'psychic' how gifted they are.

Also, it's not as if people have to invent rationalisations for failure, since sufficient ones already exist, which most people are likely to have heard a few of already, and which have been shaped by invention or usage into forms which are largely self-consistent and unfalsifiable.

As for delusion being better than charlatanism, it's not automatically better for the customers. A genuine deluded psychic can still end up having someone coming back over and over, spending money to hear comforting fantasies instead of getting on with their life.